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Patrick Imhoff's avatar

Here are my thoughts on cards and money/value:

1. Avoid modern cards, specifically modern rookies. Why? The odds of a modern rookie actually making it to the HOF are slim to none, maybe 1-2 from each rookie class has a shot, and that is being generous with the odds. What that means is that each year/release when we come up with out Top 10 rookies to collect or buy, 9 of them will not make it. From a money standpoint, that means if you invest $20 to get a nice numbered RC of each of the top 10, you could only count on one of them to hit it big, meaning that card would need to increase in value to over $200 to just potentially break even. You could also hope to pull a unicorn card out of unopened box, but most likely that will barely cover the cost of the box, or other boxes you bought and missed out on.

2. Prospect Cards: This has potential to make some profit, if you can identify a guy who is 18 and has the talent and potential that noone else sees and will be the next guy to hit the MLB at 21 years old. If you are good at identifying and researching stats, you may be good at picking who will make it, but again the odds are against you. But, at least with prospect cards there is a chance to flip them for profit each time the prospect makes the jump from one level to the next.

3. Vintage HOF cards (graded): Graded vintage cards of HOF and or Rookies are to me like investing in bonds. They will hold their value over the long run, unlike the categories above, but after the return to the hobby in 2020 of many, they have been marked up in price already so it is hard to find one you can buy and get it for a steal. Winning an auction is still possible, but these are still good to buy and hold, they should not decrease but dont expect crazy increases already.

4. Vintage HOF cards (ungraded): This may be the best way to make some money, but it is risky. An ungraded or raw vintage HOF card can often be found for cheaper than its graded sibling. The money potential comes in if you can spot a card in great condition (centered, sharp corners, etc.) and buy it, you can potentially get it graded and sell for a profit. You need to be very good at identifying good looking cards from reputable sellers and understand how much you are paying for it raw as compared to how much it sells for at the grade you are hoping to get. The delta needs to be well worth the cost of shipping grading. The big risk here is that the cards is in the condition you think it is based on just photos and that the grader sees it as you do, which if you have seen David and I submit cards for grading, it appears to be luck of the draw.

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